North European congestion is back: what berth waits do to your ETA

Berth waits at the big North European hubs are creeping up again, and the pattern is familiar: a vessel arrives on time, then sits at anchor for days before it can work. The bill lands twice: once in a later real arrival, and once in detention on the boxes waiting behind it.

The desk’s take: a published ETA won’t move while the ship is stuck at anchor; it was set before the queue formed. A predicted ETA, built from the delay you can actually observe at the port and on the vessel, will. If your visibility tool still shows on-time while AIS shows the ship holding off the berth, it isn’t telling you the truth.

What to do with it: watch dwell at the discharge port, not just the schedule, and let the demurrage clock start in your head the day the queue appears, not the day the invoice does.

This is exactly what TrackingMCP is built to surface: port congestion, a predicted ETA with the reason attached, and the free-time clock running against it.